{
 "_about": "Published resource estimates for breaking a key with Shor's algorithm. 'physical' is physical qubits, 'logical' logical qubits, 'time' the stated runtime. 'target' is rsa2048 or ecc256. Numbers are the papers' headline figures under the papers' own assumptions (usually a physical error rate of 0.1%). CC BY 4.0, Nan · hongdam.net.",
 "rows": [
  {"year": 2012.7, "date": "2012-09", "who": "Fowler, Mariantoni, Martinis, Cleland", "target": "rsa2048", "physical": 1000000000, "logical": null, "time": "about a day", "note": "the surface-code review's headline: a billion physical qubits for a 2000-bit number", "src": ["fowler2012"]},
  {"year": 2017.5, "date": "2017-06", "who": "Roetteler, Naehrig, Svore, Lauter", "target": "ecc256", "physical": null, "logical": 2330, "time": "1.26 × 10^11 Toffoli gates", "note": "the first precise count for a 256-bit curve key: about 2,330 logical qubits", "src": ["roetteler2017"]},
  {"year": 2019.4, "date": "2019-05", "who": "Gidney and Ekerå", "target": "rsa2048", "physical": 20000000, "logical": null, "time": "8 hours", "note": "twenty million noisy qubits, 0.1% error, 1 µs cycle", "src": ["gidney2019"]},
  {"year": 2021.2, "date": "2021-03", "who": "Gouzien and Sangouard", "target": "rsa2048", "physical": 13436, "logical": null, "time": "177 days", "note": "plus a quantum memory of 28 million modes that does not exist; time traded for space", "src": ["gouzien2021"]},
  {"year": 2022.1, "date": "2022-01", "who": "Webber, Elfving, Weidt, Hensinger", "target": "ecc256", "physical": 317000000, "logical": null, "time": "1 hour (13 million qubits for a day; 1.9 billion for 10 minutes)", "note": "the paper that first priced a Bitcoin key against the ten-minute block", "src": ["webber2022"]},
  {"year": 2023.5, "date": "2023-06", "who": "Litinski", "target": "ecc256", "physical": 6900000, "logical": null, "time": "about 10 minutes per key", "note": "50 million Toffoli gates in a photonic 'active volume' model", "src": ["litinski2023"]},
  {"year": 2024.1, "date": "2024-02", "who": "Chevignard, Fouque, Schrottenloher", "target": "rsa2048", "physical": null, "logical": 1730, "time": "about 40 runs of 2^36 Toffoli gates", "note": "a third of the logical qubits at the price of a thousand times more gates", "src": ["chevignard2024"]},
  {"year": 2025.4, "date": "2025-05", "who": "Gidney", "target": "rsa2048", "physical": 1000000, "logical": null, "time": "under a week", "note": "fewer than a million noisy qubits; same 0.1% error assumption as 2019", "src": ["gidney2025"]},
  {"year": 2026.1, "date": "2026-02", "who": "Webster and others, Iceberg Quantum", "target": "rsa2048", "physical": 100000, "logical": null, "time": "not the headline", "note": "fewer than 100,000 on qLDPC codes with long-range wiring; about 22,000 at 0.01% error", "src": ["pinnacle2026"]},
  {"year": 2026.25, "date": "2026-03", "who": "Babbush, Zalcman, Gidney, Broughton, Khattar, Neven, Bergamaschi, Drake, Boneh", "target": "ecc256", "physical": 500000, "logical": 1450, "time": "18–23 minutes; about 9–12 from a primed state", "note": "fewer than half a million superconducting qubits; fast enough for the ten-minute block on a fast-clock machine", "src": ["babbush2026"]},
  {"year": 2026.25, "date": "2026-03", "who": "Caltech and Oratomic", "target": "ecc256", "physical": 10000, "logical": null, "time": "about 10 days per key", "note": "ten to twenty-six thousand neutral atoms; slow clock, so days not minutes", "src": ["caltech2026"]},
  {"year": 2026.3, "date": "2026-04", "who": "Mundada and others, Q-CTRL", "target": "rsa2048", "physical": 381000, "logical": null, "time": "9.2 days", "note": "idle logical qubits parked in slower memory tiers", "src": ["mundada2026"]},
  {"year": 2026.7, "date": "2026-09", "who": "Häner and others, IonQ", "target": "ecc256", "physical": 19397, "logical": 1457, "time": "25.7 days, 63% success", "note": "a trapped-ion blueprint; IonQ's largest machine is 256 qubits", "src": ["haner2026"]}
 ]
}