27,094 sightings scoredMathคณิต
Counts, the left–right split, what sits beside him, how alarmed the headlines read, how the pictures spread.
Thing stories ข่าวของกินของใช้
Pictures on stories found by the thing (outlet slugs, Bluesky term search, GDELT), one count per distinct picture.
| Pictures | 22,516 |
| With his face (95% Wilson interval) | 350 = 1.6% [0.014, 0.0172] |
| His face left, a thing right | 74 = 0.3% [0.0026, 0.0041] |
| His face right, a thing left | 8 |
| The thing with no face of his | 1,973 |
| Of pictures showing a thing, share with him beside it | 4.0% [0.0323, 0.0493] |
| Of those, share with him on the left | 90.2% |
| Trend in the RFK-left share, odds ratio per year | 1.686 (slope 0.043 ± 0.025 per month) |
RFK-left share by month, per 1,000 pictures
| month | pictures | his face | RFK left | share | thing alone |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-09 | 79 | 20 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2023-10 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2024-02 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2024-08 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2024-11 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2024-12 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 1 |
| 2025-01 | 47 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 3 |
| 2025-02 | 81 | 2 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2025-03 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-04 | 80 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2025-05 | 63 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2025-06 | 52 | 1 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2025-07 | 156 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 4 |
| 2025-08 | 97 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 2 |
| 2025-09 | 130 | 7 | 0 | 0.0% | 12 |
| 2025-10 | 92 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 7 |
| 2025-11 | 86 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 5 |
| 2025-12 | 894 | 6 | 1 | 0.1% | 46 |
| 2026-01 | 1,605 | 5 | 1 | 0.1% | 64 |
| 2026-02 | 1,810 | 9 | 0 | 0.0% | 58 |
| 2026-03 | 1,737 | 9 | 1 | 0.1% | 51 |
| 2026-04 | 1,558 | 12 | 0 | 0.0% | 62 |
| 2026-05 | 1,712 | 18 | 0 | 0.0% | 81 |
| 2026-06 | 2,022 | 20 | 1 | 0.1% | 94 |
| 2026-07 | 1,796 | 26 | 11 | 0.6% | 135 |
| 2026-08 | 2,588 | 73 | 32 | 1.2% | 386 |
| 2026-09 | 5,760 | 140 | 27 | 0.5% | 949 |
factpostnews.bsky.social: whole feed
First RFK-left picture: 2026-07.
| month | pictures | RFK left | RFK right | thing alone | share left | RFK left, text names him |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01 | 49 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-02 | 79 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-03 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-04 | 76 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-05 | 61 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-06 | 53 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-07 | 155 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-08 | 95 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-09 | 69 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-10 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-11 | 85 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2025-12 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026-01 | 129 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026-02 | 189 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026-03 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026-04 | 268 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026-05 | 393 | 0 | 0 | 26 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026-06 | 464 | 0 | 2 | 37 | 0.0% | 0 |
| 2026-07 | 275 | 11 | 0 | 11 | 4.0% | 4 |
| 2026-08 | 235 | 31 | 0 | 13 | 13.2% | 1 |
| 2026-09 | 157 | 22 | 0 | 9 | 14.0% | 1 |
Change points in daily RFK-left posts:
| from | to | per day |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-26 | 2026-07-13 | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-09-26 | 0.853 |
Outlets
| outlet | pictures | RFK left | share |
|---|---|---|---|
| threads.com | 11 | 1 | 9.1% |
| statnews.com | 172 | 1 | 0.6% |
| nbcnews.com | 160 | 1 | 0.6% |
| rawstory.com | 134 | 1 | 0.8% |
Counts จำนวน
| sightings | pictures | families | doom mean | reuse Gini | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFK left RFK อยู่ซ้าย | 85 | 77 | 72 | 1.306 | 0.141 |
| RFK right RFK อยู่ขวา | 20 | 17 | 9 | 0.255 | 0.478 |
| The thing เฉพาะของ | 2,903 | 2,003 | 1,777 | 0.291 | 0.374 |
| RFK เฉพาะ RFK | 517 | 390 | 260 | 0.403 | 0.442 |
Gini measures how unevenly sightings pile onto a few families.
Left or right ซ้ายหรือขวา
| Sightings, RFK left : right | 85 : 20 |
| Share left, sightings (95% Wilson interval) | 0.809 [0.724, 0.8732] |
| Exact binomial test against 50:50, p | 1.01e-10 |
| Posterior chance the left share exceeds half (flat Beta prior) | 1 |
| Families, RFK left : right | 72 : 9 |
| Share left, families (95% interval) | 0.889 [0.8021, 0.9404] |
| Seam position, mean ± sd (0 = left edge, 1 = right) | 0.5 ± 0 |
Sightings count reposts; families count each composite once. A gap between the two means a few left-hand composites got posted many times.
Beside him ของข้างๆ
| thing | RFK left | RFK right | thing only |
|---|---|---|---|
| germs & disease เชื้อโรค | 21 | 11 | 67 |
| produce ผักผลไม้ | 13 | 2 | 38 |
| vaccines วัคซีน | 8 | 1 | 264 |
| seed oil น้ำมันพืช | 7 | 0 | 80 |
| raw meat เนื้อดิบ | 6 | 0 | 102 |
| plated food อาหารจานเดียว | 6 | 0 | 151 |
| processed meat เนื้อแปรรูป | 5 | 1 | 100 |
| sugar น้ำตาล | 5 | 0 | 38 |
| pet food อาหารสัตว์ | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| tobacco & vapes บุหรี่/พอด | 1 | 1 | 32 |
| candy ลูกอม | 2 | 0 | 215 |
| ice cream ไอศกรีม | 2 | 0 | 91 |
| eggs ไข่ | 2 | 0 | 14 |
| phones & screens มือถือ/จอ | 0 | 2 | 38 |
| chemicals สารเคมี | 1 | 0 | 45 |
| infant formula นมผง | 0 | 1 | 28 |
| cereal ซีเรียล | 1 | 0 | 50 |
| donuts & cake โดนัท/เค้ก | 1 | 0 | 66 |
| school lunch อาหารกลางวันโรงเรียน | 0 | 1 | 36 |
| pills & painkillers ยาเม็ด | 1 | 0 | 685 |
| soda น้ำอัดลม | 1 | 0 | 79 |
| energy drinks เครื่องดื่มชูกำลัง | 0 | 0 | 30 |
| sweeteners สารให้ความหวาน | 0 | 0 | 87 |
| chips & snacks ขนมกรุบกรอบ | 0 | 0 | 76 |
| alcohol เหล้าเบียร์ | 0 | 0 | 26 |
| food dye สีผสมอาหาร | 0 | 0 | 68 |
| sunscreen & cosmetics ครีมกันแดด/เครื่องสำอาง | 0 | 0 | 27 |
| fast food ฟาสต์ฟู้ด | 0 | 0 | 254 |
| milk นม | 0 | 0 | 62 |
| water & fluoride น้ำ/ฟลูออไรด์ | 0 | 0 | 40 |
| Entropy, RFK left | 3.513 bits = 11.41 kinds |
| Entropy, RFK right | 2.219 bits = 4.66 kinds |
| JSD, left mix against right mix | 0.379 |
| χ² test, side × thing | {'chi2': 32.531, 'dof': 20, 'p': 0.038} |
Doom พาดหัวสยอง
Doom = weighted alarm words (recall, toxic, ban, cancer, autism…) over the square root of the headline's length. The test below compares each wall with the RFK-only wall: probability of superiority and the Mann–Whitney p.
| wall | P(more alarmed) | p |
|---|---|---|
| rfk_left | 0.816 | 1.51e-21 |
| rfk_right | 0.401 | 0.121 |
| thing_only | 0.368 | 4.74e-29 |
Words most often under split screens: contamination (30), recall (24), fda (22), recalled (20), announced (18), measles (13), outbreak (11), death (8), cdc (8), million (5), allergens (4), reported (4), risk (4), deaths (4), cause (3)
Doom against likes+reposts on Bluesky split screens, Spearman ρ: {'rho': 0.4428, 'p': 4.98e-06, 'n': 98}
Over time ตามเวลา
RFK left RFK อยู่ซ้าย
RFK right RFK อยู่ขวา
The thing เฉพาะของ
RFK เฉพาะ RFK
Change points, RFK left
Exact PELT on daily counts.
| from | to | per day |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-26 | 2025-12-18 | 0 |
| 2025-12-19 | 2026-07-13 | 0.034 |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-09-26 | 1.04 |
Change points, the thing
| from | to | per day |
|---|---|---|
| 2023-09-26 | 2025-01-20 | 0.584 |
| 2025-01-21 | 2025-12-01 | 0.81 |
| 2025-12-02 | 2026-02-04 | 2.338 |
| 2026-02-05 | 2026-02-05 | 37 |
| 2026-02-06 | 2026-02-06 | 11 |
| 2026-02-07 | 2026-05-03 | 2.442 |
| 2026-05-04 | 2026-07-27 | 3.494 |
| 2026-07-28 | 2026-09-18 | 13.34 |
| 2026-09-19 | 2026-09-23 | 22.2 |
| 2026-09-24 | 2026-09-24 | 177 |
| 2026-09-25 | 2026-09-25 | 657 |
| 2026-09-26 | 2026-09-26 | 7 |
Spread การแพร่
Hawkes fit on sighting times. The branching ratio is the share of sightings set off by an earlier one; the decay is how long that push lasts.
| wall | branching ratio | decay, hours | background per day | n |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFK left | 0.999 | 75.28 | 0.006 | 85 |
| The thing | 0.713 | 3.55 | 0.764 | 2,903 |
Reposts per family, fitted as a power law:
| wall | α | x_min | families in tail | KS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| RFK left | 2.259 | 1 | 72 | 0.889 |
| The thing | 2.455 | 5 | 39 | 0.179 |
| RFK | 2.484 | 5 | 18 | 0.222 |
Hour of day, RFK left (Rayleigh test for a preferred hour): peak 16.92 UTC, R = 0.769, p = 3.72e-27, n = 85.
News against Bluesky, daily cross-correlation peak: [12, 0.0026] (lag in days; positive = news first).